On prediction markets, the short primer: if something resolves as "true" it pays out every "yes" share at $1.00. So a way to think about these percentages is as follows:
I'd risk $0.80 to win $1.00 on something I have an 80% percentage on.
I'm simplifying and ignoring "no" conditions which is similar to a short sale in a lot of ways. I'm also ignoring some nuances of prediction markets themselves like liquidity/trade volume, volatility, etc but this is close enough for a first order approximation.
Also thanks for reading and being the first commenter!
Ah, not British, but I enjoy turns of phrase, wordplay, and, arguably, pretentiousness so it just seemed right to use it when referring to Americans thinking about European populism and government.
Interesting. Not sure I completely get it but I don’t pick stocks.
When you say, “other side of the pond,” are you British? Yglesias is an American, right?
On prediction markets, the short primer: if something resolves as "true" it pays out every "yes" share at $1.00. So a way to think about these percentages is as follows:
I'd risk $0.80 to win $1.00 on something I have an 80% percentage on.
I'm simplifying and ignoring "no" conditions which is similar to a short sale in a lot of ways. I'm also ignoring some nuances of prediction markets themselves like liquidity/trade volume, volatility, etc but this is close enough for a first order approximation.
Also thanks for reading and being the first commenter!
Interesting. Thanks and you’re welcome! I look forward to future installments.
Ah, not British, but I enjoy turns of phrase, wordplay, and, arguably, pretentiousness so it just seemed right to use it when referring to Americans thinking about European populism and government.